Evaluation of R&D projects with uncertainty based on evidence reasoning

Abstract

This paper presents an assessment model for research and development (R&D) projects considering uncertainty in their overall life cycle. Technology maturity and competitive advantages were considered and a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) model was developed to evaluate R&D projects. Based on the multilevel evaluation framework, an evidence reasoning approach has been developed to aggregate the numerical data and qualitative information with uncertainty. The expected utility is applied to describe preferences of decision-makers in the decision process. A case study in the context of automobile R&D projects is given to illustrate the methods.