The Crisis of the WTO and New Direction for Negotiation Strategies of Korea

J. Suh, Cheon-kee Lee, Jukwan Lee, Jihyeon Kim, Myeonghwa Jung
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Abstract

The WTO is facing a historical crisis. Its main functions ‒ namely, providing a negotiating forum, administrating WTO trade agreements and monitoring national trade policies, and resolving trade disputes ‒ have been significantly paralyzed. Although the cause of the crisis is partly institutional, higher uncertainty is also a considerable problem aggravating the fate of the multilateral trading system. Such uncertainty comes from two factors: rising protectionism, and trade frictions between developed and developing countries including those between the United States and China. Meanwhile, the WTO also needs to respond to rapid structural changes in global trade. The center of the world’s trade is shifting towards trade in services. The development and spread of information and communication technology (ICT) are making it easier to supply services across borders. The regionalization or localization of global value chains (GVCs) continues and GVCs are shifting towards knowledge-based goods. Therefore, the WTO faces a historical challenge it is highly unlikely to survive without proper reflection on the new trends of global trade. With Korea no longer claiming for preferential treatments as a developing country, it could take relatively firm negotiating positions at the WTO concerning market expansion and improved access towards foreign markets. Moreover, Korea could contribute as a mediator to speak for balancing the interests of both developed and developing countries on conflicting issues, such as the developing country status. Korea also needs to establish a more precise give-and-take negotiation strategy in future WTO negotiations on agriculture, non-agriculture, and service sectors to maximize its national interests. In particular, Korea should put stress on services and TRIPs negotiations to ensure its international competitiveness on those sectors. Trade in services and IP will dominate trade in goods. Korea also should focus on how to raise the efficiency and stability of the East-Asian regional value chains by strengthening its co-operation with China, Japan, and Southeast Asia. At the same time, Korea needs to consider ways to become the bridgehead connecting East Asia’s value chains to either North America’s value chains or the EU’s value chains utilizing given FTAs with those economies. Finally, Korea should prepare for the emergence of various forms of plurilateral negotiations and where appropriate, take lead and reflect its national interests on the final outcome.
WTO危机与韩国谈判策略新方向
世界贸易组织正面临历史性危机。其主要职能,即提供谈判论坛、管理世贸组织贸易协定和监督国家贸易政策以及解决贸易争端,已严重瘫痪。虽然危机的部分原因是体制上的,但不确定性的增加也是一个严重的问题,加剧了多边贸易体制的命运。这种不确定性来自两个因素:一是保护主义抬头,二是发达国家与发展中国家之间的贸易摩擦,包括美国与中国之间的贸易摩擦。与此同时,世贸组织还需要对全球贸易的快速结构性变化做出反应。世界贸易的中心正在向服务贸易转移。信息和通信技术(ICT)的发展和传播使跨境提供服务变得更加容易。全球价值链的区域化或本地化仍在继续,全球价值链正转向以知识为基础的产品。因此,世界贸易组织面临着历史性的挑战,如果不对全球贸易的新趋势进行适当的反思,它就极不可能生存下去。由于韩国不再要求作为发展中国家的优惠待遇,它可以在世界贸易组织就市场扩大和改善进入外国市场的机会采取相对坚定的谈判立场。此外,在发展中国家地位等相互矛盾的问题上,韩国也可以起到协调发达国家和发展中国家利益的作用。在今后的世界贸易组织农业、非农业、服务领域谈判中,韩国也需要制定更精确的让步协商策略,实现国家利益的最大化。特别是,韩国应该把重点放在服务业和与贸易有关的知识产权谈判上,以确保在这些领域的国际竞争力。服务贸易和知识产权贸易将主导货物贸易。韩国也应该加强与中国、日本、东南亚的合作,关注如何提高东亚地区价值链的效率和稳定性。与此同时,韩国也应该考虑利用与北美或欧盟的自由贸易协定,成为连接东亚价值链与北美或欧盟价值链的桥头堡的方案。最后,韩国应该为各种形式的诸边谈判做好准备,并在适当的情况下发挥主导作用,在最终结果中反映韩国的国家利益。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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