Driven by Fundamentals or Exploded by Sentiments: Testing for Speculative Bubbles in Emerging Stock Markets

Abstract

This study investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in diverse nine emerging markets, which may lead to terrible financial disasters. Therefore, a novel approach of Rtadf (Recursive, Right-tailed Augmented Dickey-Fuller) tests, monthly time-series data (January 2000–July 2021), and Monte-Carlo simulation under Gaussian assumptions is used. Our findings imply that massive growth in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Taiwan, and Thailand is driven by credit or speculative bubbles rather than fundamentals whereas no bubbles are found in South Korea, India, and the Philippines - (as per Generalized Supreme ADF - GSADF test). Furthermore, in each stock market, these bubbles primarily exist prior to any local and global financial crisis.  These findings add to the existing knowledge of the relationship between bubbles and financial crises. Hence, this study suggests the GSADF test could detect an impending financial crisis in any economy, allowing authorities to control or maintain economic and financial stability.