An Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 and its Effects on Indonesia’S Economy: A Dynamic Simulation Estimation

Abstract

The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has spread all over the world, including Indonesia, and as the rate increases each day, the death toll also rise. However, the effects of the outbreak on the economy has not been calculated especially in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the disease on Indonesia’s economy. Hence, A System Dynamics method was used, and the results showed there are four scenarios which are worst, bad, moderate, and desirable. Furthermore, in order to ensure economic growth of 3.5%, a vaccine needs to be discovered by August 2020, recovery period of 7 days, ventilator efficiency of 70%, hospital bed capacity of 51,161, and social distancing needs to be practiced. Therefore, these results can be useful for policy makers to handle the pandemic.