Developing a Decision Model Framework to Assess Arms Supplier Policies

Abstract

Comparative assessment of arms supplier policies by recipient nations is rationally important for arms purchase. However, such assessment is typically context-dependent or sometimes skewed by one or two perspectives. The use of a rational decision model in assessing and ranking policy options has been widely studied and is considered here. This novel research develops a hierarchical decision model (HDM) framework consisting of the relevant perspectives, their related criteria, and appropriate policy alternatives. Through a literature review a taxonomy was developed consisting of technological, economic, political, industrial, and military (TEPIM) perspectives, 13 criteria, and 65 sub-criteria. Then, based on elicitation of expert judgments, arms supplier policy alternatives were found to be represented by 3 archetypal policy profiles: hegemonic power, commercial trade, and selective export. This framework will be applied to future research involving an arms recipient's import decision making.