Profit as an Independent Variable: The Case of Business Aircraft

D. Howarth
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Methodology This investigative method uses multiple log-linear regression, boundary condition analysis and analytic geometry to define market limits and financially optimized entry points into a marketplace. While portions of this approach have been applied successfully to a variety of products and industries (jet engines, automobiles and aircraft radios, to name a few), in order to create a point of detailed analytical departure, the business aircraft market was chosen for study here. Several data sources exist for this marketplace. Most aircraft manufacturers have no-fee websites in which they list the specifications of the various vehicles they offer for sale. They post their pricing and order books there as well. As a group, these sites formed the primary source of data used in this paper. A small number of companies provide a wide range of information about business aircraft. Included among these are Forecast International, Jane’s Information Group and The Teal Group. The finished dataset incorporated information from each of these services, which by and large agreed with one another. In those instances in which there were discrepancies, the figures from competing data sources were compared. In cases in which a source agreed with a number from the manufacturer, that figure went into the analysis. In instances in which the manufacturer did not provide a figure, but all three of the aforementioned services did, either a figure upon which the majority agreed was used, or failing such a majority, an average of the figures was used. The resulting database consisted of 46 aircraft models from 15 manufacturers, and considered 20 variables over the decade running from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2011.
作为自变量的利润:公务机的案例
这种调查方法使用多重对数线性回归、边界条件分析和解析几何来确定市场极限和进入市场的财务优化切入点。虽然这种方法的一部分已经成功地应用于各种产品和行业(喷气发动机,汽车和飞机收音机,仅举几例),但为了创建一个详细的分析出发点,这里选择商务飞机市场进行研究。这个市场有几个数据源。大多数飞机制造商都有免费的网站,上面列出了他们出售的各种车辆的规格。他们也在那里发布定价和订单。作为一个整体,这些站点构成了本文使用的主要数据来源。少数公司提供有关公务机的广泛信息。其中包括国际预测公司、简氏信息集团和蒂尔集团。完成的数据集包含了来自这些服务的信息,这些信息大体上是一致的。在存在差异的情况下,对来自相互竞争的数据来源的数字进行比较。如果消息来源与制造商提供的数字一致,则该数字将被纳入分析。在制造商没有提供数字,但上述三个服务都提供的情况下,要么使用大多数人同意的数字,要么使用大多数人同意的数字的平均值。由此产生的数据库包括来自15家制造商的46种飞机型号,并考虑了2002年初至2011年底这10年间的20个变量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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