Computational Modeling Framework for the Study of Infectious Disease Spread through Commercial Air-Travel

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated computational modelling framework combining pedestrian dynamics and infection spread models, to analyse the infectious disease spread during the different stages of air-travel. While, commercial air travel is central to the global mobility of goods and people, it has also been identified as a leading factor in the spread of several epidemic diseases including influenza, SARS and Ebola. The mixing of susceptible and infectious individuals in these high people density locations like airports involves pedestrian movement which needs to be taken into account in the modelling studies of disease dynamics. We develop a Molecular Dynamics based social force modeling approach for pedestrian dynamics and combine it with a stochastic infection dynamics model to evaluate the spread of viral infectious diseases in airplanes and airports. We apply the multiscale model for various key components of air travel and suggest strategies to reduce the number of contacts and the spread of infectious diseases. We simulate pedestrian movement during boarding and deplaning of some typical commercial airplane models and movement of people through security check areas. We found specific boarding strategies that reduce the number of contacts. Further, we find that smaller airplanes are more effective in reducing the number of contacts compared to larger airplanes. We propose certain queue configuration that reduces contacts between people and mitigate disease spread.