STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR SIMULATING TIME SERIES OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS

Abstract

The article presents the results of the development of a stochastic model for simulating time meteorological series (stochastic weather generator). Modeling of artificial meteorological series with a discreteness of one day is performed on the basis of the Monte Carlo method for the following elements: maximum and minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, amount and intensity of precipitation. When developing the stochastic model, the ground-level network observations of the State Institution «Republican Hydrometeorological Center» for the Minsk OMN (ф = 53.92°, Z = 27.63°) obtained for the period from 2000-2020 were used. The resulting simulated meteorological series are statistically identical to the actual series.