Case Study: How Misinterpreting Probabilities Can Cost You the Game

Abstract

Using data to make future decisions can increase the odds of success in many aspects of life, however, using the data incorrectly can be worse than not using any data at all. In this study, I present a case where a collegiate football coach attempted to use data to enhance the chances of success. In fact, because of his misinterpretation the dependence (or independence) of odds across his play-calling, his play-calling was not only sub-optimal but was detrimental to his team. This case study is designed as a way to clarify this common mistake our students make when interpreting data.