Output Loss from Sudden Stop of FDI and the Role of Macroeconomic Policies

M. Yazdani, E. Daryani
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Abstract

Generally, international flows of capital and foreign direct investment attraction are challengeable issues in the literature of economic growth and development in emerging market countries. However, the fluctuations in foreign direct investment, including sudden flood and stop, will affect emerging markets' output and macroeconomic variables. Using an econometric model with unbalanced panel data during 1990-2014 for 38 emerging countries, this study tries to evaluate the determinants of output losses from the sudden stop of foreign direct investment and consider the role of macroeconomic policies. The results show that the sudden stop phenomena and the financial crises have been identified as the main explanatory variables for the output collapse in the selected countries. Moreover, the role of macroeconomic policies is important, and the output losses can be controlled by using active monetary and exchange rate policies.
外商直接投资骤停造成的产出损失及宏观经济政策的作用
一般来说,资本的国际流动和吸引外国直接投资是新兴市场国家经济增长和发展文献中具有挑战性的问题。然而,外国直接投资的波动,包括突然涌入和停止,将影响新兴市场的产出和宏观经济变量。本研究利用1990-2014年间38个新兴国家的非平衡面板数据的计量经济模型,试图评估外国直接投资突然停止造成产出损失的决定因素,并考虑宏观经济政策的作用。结果表明,经济骤停现象和金融危机是所选国家产出崩溃的主要解释变量。此外,宏观经济政策的作用是重要的,可以通过使用积极的货币和汇率政策来控制产出损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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