Marginalized in the Middle

Abstract

Chapter 2 lays out the theory for why moderates so often fail to take on the mantle of being the pivotal voter. Theoretically, as the Senate loses moderates and becomes more polarized, the remaining moderates should gain power and become pivotal to every vote. This chapter argues that in the polarized era, moderates are cross-pressured as they are elected from states in which the opposition is the majority party or from swing states that have a roughly equal number of partisans from both sides. As a result, moderates must balance a volatile coalition of voters by avoiding traceability on most issues. Chapter 2 argues that in the onstage legislative game, when senators can shape and defend legislation, they should remain inactive and invisible. In the behind-the-scenes legislative game, where senators negotiate and push their influence behind closed doors, they should seek consensus but avoid driving legislation too strongly.