Can the Markovian influence graph simulate cascading resilience from historical outage data?

Abstract

It is challenging to simulate the cascading line outages that can follow initial damage to the electric power transmission system from extreme events. Instead of model-based simulation, we propose using a Markovian influence graph driven by historical utility data to sample the cascades. The sampling method encompasses the rare, large cascades that contribute greatly to the blackout risk. This suggested new approach contributes a high-level simulation of cascading line outages that is driven by standard utility data.