Türkiye ekonomisinde dış ticaret, cari denge ve yapısal dönüşüm

Abstract

Current account deficit, which has reached to 48.8 billion dollars, or 5.3 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, has been one of the main indicators of “fragility” for the Turkish economy. Although Turkish economy has long been identified with its dependency on foreign resources to sustain economic growth, the post-2000 period has also marked a structural change in the relationship between foreign capital flows and the current account balance. Before the 1980s, a growth cycle through increased domestic demand for the Turkish economy, traditionally increased import demand, led to current account deficit and created the need for foreign savings. Yet, in the aftermath of the liberalization of the current and financial accounts, the direction of the causality has been reversed. Here, autonomous flows of (short-term) foreign capital have been the main drivers of the growth cycles of the economy, hence the dynamics of the current account balance. The aim of this study is to assess the structural determinants of the now chronic and serious current account deficit of the Turkish economy. To this end, we first look into the main drivers of this structural change in the relationship between the growth, foreign capital flows and current account balance. Next, we discuss the contribution of structural change, investment dynamics and de-industrialization to the problem of current account deficit of the economy.