The Future of Transatlanticism: Effects of a Raise of US Import Tariffs on Exports in the German Automotive Sector. A Quantitative, Data Driven Approach

Abstract

The promotion of low tariffs and free trade has been the underlying driver of global economic growth. The recent political developments in the United States and Great Britain calls into question, whether free trade will be supported by the governments of the industrialized world in the future. Shortly after being inaugurated in 2017, the President of the United States has repeatedly announced his plans to impose punitive tariffs on the import of foreign products in order to protect the country’s domestic economy. Besides a controversial border adjustment tax, he has frequently brought up the possibility of imposing a 35% tariff on automobile imports. The chapter aims to analyze the effects of such a tariff on trade in the automotive sector between the United States and Germany as well as on German automobile manufacturers. It takes a quantitative approach to draw a conclusion about the relationship between import tariffs on automobiles and passenger vehicle imports from Germany to the United States utilizing a fixed effects regression model based on panel data. The model finds a significant negative correlation between the examined variables, but even in a worst case scenario, German manufacturers are resilient to the predicted revenue losses caused by a tariff increase.