A Fast Reliability Assessment Method Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Considering Historical Fault Data

Abstract

This paper studies the reliability evaluation algorithm of complex distribution networks. In order to simplify the analysis process, components in the network are divided and equivalent to different virtual devices to eliminate the quantity of devices by the two-step process in fault process. According to the phenomenon of repeated fault analysis during the simulation process, a historical fault list is constructed to store the fault data for subsequent simulation. The data is dynamically updated by sequential list search method within the simulation process. On the basis of above methods, combining with the impact analysis, the reliability assessment method on historical fault is proposed. Finally, by using the proposed method and algorithm, this paper takes a modified RBTS BUS6 system to illustrate the high efficiency and correctness of the proposed method in the paper.