The Macroeconomic Effect of Housing Price Fluctuation

Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Education Innovation and Economic Management (ICEIEM 2019) Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI:10.2991/iceiem-19.2019.23

Chen Weng, Haohui Chi

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Abstract

The real estate industry is a pillar industry concerning the national economy and people's livelihood. A stable and healthy real estate market will benefit all residents, enterprises and government organs, and make the macroeconomic development better and the country stronger. Based on the data collected from China Economic Information Network and National Bureau of Statistics from March 2009 to March 2019, this paper studies the macroeconomic effect of housing price fluctuation by using ARDL model. The conclusions show that the housing price fluctuation has significant wealth effect and inflationary effect in the short run, while it has no significant impact on consumption, investment and inflation in the long run. Accordingly, we suggest that when formulating macroeconomic policies, attention should be paid to the impact of housing price fluctuation on macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the healthy development of the real estate market should also be taken into consideration. Keywords—housing price; wealth effect; inflationary effect; ARDL model

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房价波动的宏观经济效应

房地产业是关系国计民生的支柱产业。稳定健康的房地产市场有利于全体居民、企业和政府机关，有利于宏观经济更好发展，有利于国家更强。本文基于中国经济信息网和国家统计局2009年3月至2019年3月的数据，运用ARDL模型研究了房价波动的宏观经济效应。结论表明，房价波动在短期内具有显著的财富效应和通货膨胀效应，而在长期内对消费、投资和通货膨胀没有显著影响。因此，我们建议在制定宏观经济政策时，应关注房价波动对宏观经济变量的影响。此外，还应考虑到房地产市场的健康发展。Keywords-housing价格;财富效应;通货膨胀的效果;ARDL模型

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Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Education Innovation and Economic Management (ICEIEM 2019)

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