The Nexus Between Tourism and Economic Growth: Case of Commonwealth of Independent States

Abstract

In this study the relationship between tourism and economic growth examined with panel data analysis for the Commonwealth Independent States (Azerbaijan, Russian Federation, Ukraine, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan except Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – due to lack of data) for the period between 1995 and 2015. The data has been downloaded from World Bank Development Indicators with their natural logarithmic forms. At the empirical part of the study GDP per capita annual data (%) represents economic growth and international tourism receipts (of % total export) have been chosen as an indicator of tourism sector. The model has been tested with dynamic panel data analysis. Firstly preliminary tests have been applied to be sure about the the homogeneity of series (Delta test) and the cross-section depence (CDlm test) of each individuals. After that second generation unit root test (Hadri Kurozomi-2012) used to find out the level of stationary. Durbin-H co-integration test showed that there is co-integration between variables and finally Hurlin-Dumetriscu causality test (2012) does not support tourism-led growth hypothesis. So there is one-way causality from economic growth to tourism for selected countries.