The 21st Century

Peter N. Stearns
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Abstract

21st Century Trends: Urbanization and Disasters We are seeing two distinct but intertwined trends becoming readily evident in the 21st century. The first is urbanization. 2008 marked the first time in history where more people lived in urban centers than outside of them (see Chart 1). 1 Drawn to economic, educational, and social opportunities, the migration towards cities is undeniable and irreversible. According to the United Nation’s (UN) Population Division’s projections, nearly all of the world’s population growth in the next few decades will be in urban areas in low-and middle-income countries. By 2030 this number will swell to almost 5 billion (see Chart 2). Most of this urban growth will be concentrated heavily in Africa and Asia.
21世纪
21世纪的趋势:城市化和灾害我们看到两种截然不同但相互交织的趋势在21世纪变得非常明显。首先是城市化。2008年标志着历史上第一次有更多的人居住在城市中心而不是城市以外(见表1)。1被经济、教育和社会机会所吸引,向城市的迁移是不可否认和不可逆转的。根据联合国人口司的预测,未来几十年世界上几乎所有的人口增长都将出现在低收入和中等收入国家的城市地区。到2030年,这一数字将膨胀至近50亿(见图2)。大部分城市增长将主要集中在非洲和亚洲。
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