KAJIAN PENGARUH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DI PULAU JAWA TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN SAAT KEJADIAN BANJIR DI KENDAL PADA 26-27 JANUARI 2019

Abstract

Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) is part of the Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that its characteristics can be observed by the Himawari-8 satellite imagery infrared channel. In this study, the effect of MCC is calculated based on the estimated rainfall value at the interior cold cloud and cloud shield on the amount of observed rainfall data by applying the Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) and Modified Convective Stratiform Technique (MCST) methods. CST is a method of estimating rainfall by separating convective and stratiform cloud groups, while MCST is a modification of CST in terms of rainfall intensity and average pixel coverage on its area. Both methods were verified using rainfall observation data in Kendal with the closest observation station to the interior cold cloud and cloud shield.The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of MCC in Java on high rainfall during the flood. The results shows that the rainfall value is almost close to observation rainfall data worth 84,989 mm using CST. Although the estimated rainfall value in both methods tended to underestimate, the results of the verification of the effect of MCC on rainfall in Kendal shows moderate-strong relation in the CST with correlation values ranging from 0,30 to 0,61. Meanwhile, the MCST ranges from 0,30 to 0,59 which indicates weak-moderate category. CST error values is also smaller than MCST’s with values ranging 3,17 to 8,63. So that the CST method is better used to estimate rainfall at the interior cold cloud and the shield cloud.