Discerning nuclear proliferation intentions: some lessons from nature

Abstract

Discerning the nuclear proliferation intentions of nation-states is a challenge faced by strategic policy decision makers worldwide. Typical nuclear proliferation discourses revolve around the intentions and capabilities of nation-states, as also the events and conditions furthering the cause of nuclear proliferation. Various international relations theories try to explain a state's motivations for proliferation. However, policy makers are often confronted with strategic decision-making situations that are complex, nonlinear and evolving. In order to provide them with any meaningful support under such circumstances, a Decision Support System (DSS) model is required that can provide a complex, emergent insight into the proliferation intentions of nation-states. This paper presents such a computationally intelligent model (Discerning Nuclear Intentions or DiNI) based on the sociobiological phenomenon of altruism. A hypothetical case study is used to demonstrate the model. The results show the potential of this model as a strategic nuclear policy DSS for containing nuclear proliferation. Further research directions are discussed.