Foreign Economic Policy: Challenges of the 1980s

John Adams
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引用次数: 6

Abstract

The making of U.S. foreign economic policy is never an easy task. Complex international and domestic aims and interests must be balanced. U.S. farmers want open European markets for their grain but if Europe is pushed too hard on this issue the resulting ill-will may affect European attitudes toward U.S. investment or common security measures. Damage to U.S. textile producers from Asian imports may prompt steps for quotas that in turn alienate friendly governments. Tension is often high when U.S. legislators consider key international bills and broad global and national aims are confounded by specific, well-organized interests. Recent cases in point are the acrimonious affray over the expansion of resources for the International Monetary Fund and demands for "reciprocity" in export access. In the 1980s similar skirmishes are likely to abound, and mount in scale, because of the growing and unavoidable integration of the U.S. economy with the economies of the rest of the world. In his recent study of long-run economic growth in the world's major market economies Angus Maddison calls the period 1950-1973 the "Golden Age."' During this span output per person rose by 3.8 percent per year. This was 2.4 times the average rate of growth of the capitalist world since 1820. A primary source of this unprecedented prosperity was the expansion of international trade. Exports of the chief industrial economies grew at the rate of 8.6 percent per year and multiplied more than six-fold.2 This rate was also more than twice that of the long-term his-
对外经济政策:1980年代的挑战
制定美国对外经济政策从来不是一件容易的事。必须平衡复杂的国际和国内目标和利益。美国农民希望为他们的粮食打开欧洲市场,但如果欧洲在这个问题上被逼得太紧,由此产生的敌意可能会影响欧洲对美国投资或共同安全措施的态度。亚洲进口对美国纺织品生产商造成的损害可能促使美国采取配额措施,从而疏远友好的政府。当美国国会议员审议重要的国际法案时,局势往往非常紧张,而广泛的全球和国家目标与具体的、组织良好的利益相混淆。最近的例子是围绕扩大国际货币基金组织(imf)资源和要求在出口准入方面“互惠”展开的激烈争吵。在20世纪80年代,由于美国经济与世界其他地区经济不可避免地日益一体化,类似的小规模冲突可能会大量发生,而且规模会越来越大。在他最近对世界主要市场经济体长期经济增长的研究中,安格斯·麦迪森称1950-1973年为“黄金时代”。在此期间,人均产出每年增长3.8%。这是自1820年以来资本主义世界平均增长率的2.4倍。这种空前繁荣的主要来源是国际贸易的扩大。主要工业经济体出口年均增长8.6%,增长6倍多这一比率也是长期利率的两倍多
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