Conclusion to Part VI

Abstract

Clausewitz argues that a balance of determination and ability to adapt to circumstances is essential to military genius.1 Cognitive bias, entrapment by Iraqi leaders, and loss aversion reinforced the Bush administration’s obstinacy and impeded their ability to learn and adapt. Although the Bush administration had developed metrics to assess progress, the most virulent, strategically damaging problems were intangible or difficult to measure. These included factors such as the political scrimmage for power, predatory sectarianism, and growing corruption. These frequently occurred along the seams of bureaucratic silos, so they were never accurately measured or considered in assessments of strategic risk. The absence of such considerations may have played a role in the willingness of the Bush administration to discount violence levels as strategically irrelevant....