COVID-19 Transmission During a Tsunami Evacuation in a Lockdown City

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a new and highly contagious virus that has expanded worldwide reaching the most distant places. In March 23rd (2020), the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the city of Iquique, northern Chile. Later, in May 15th authorities declared a city lockdown that has lasted for more than 14 weeks and counting. Using Agent Based Modeling and Simulation, we study the effects on COVID-19 transmission during a tsunami-threat evacuation in the lockdown of the city of Iquique. Five different scenarios were simulated, considering different amounts of infected agents with capacity to spread the disease, different distribution of agents across the city and two different rates of contagion among agents. Results showed that most contagions occur within the first 15 minutes of the evacuation, while agents are fleeing to the safe zone. The effect on transmission rates resulted highly dependent on the spatial distribution of infected population.