A simulation model for estimating human error probability

Abstract

This paper describes the system dynamics architecture of a simulation model which estimates human error probability for humans performing certain tasks in a given scenario. Human error probability is estimated as a function of the type of tasks performed and the number of performance shaping factors. In this work, the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method is utilized for estimating the probability of human error. The system dynamics simulation model captures the cause and effect relationships of the SPAR-H defined performance shaping factors that affect human error and uses them to assess the overall human error probability of the system. The present work is a continuation of our previous work on task analysis, workload and human reliability assessment simulation and aims to evaluate the system dynamics simulation as a potential approach to assess human reliability.