The problem of prediction

Abstract

The temper of our times 18 uncertainty. The quest of our times is for security. Thta state of affairs is not unknown htstorically, but the contemporary scene, at least in thia country, haa one significant d1fference from the historical past: whereas in prevlous times the Quest tor security in the face of 1nsecurity manifested itself in wholesale returns to re11g1on. the modem reaction-with lOme formal underwrlt1ng haa been to turn in significant proportions to the actences of human behaVior for a solution. The magnitude of the demand caught psycholOlY unaware, and the unpreparedness of the profession resulted in an hiatus between demand and supply. The profession ballooned much faster than the science could progress <13>' An unhappy result has been that the science of psycholOlY haa been far oversold.