Management of Ignorance by Interval Probability

T. Entani, Hideo Tanaka
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引用次数: 6

Abstract

Interval probabilities have been proposed as one of non-additive measures. The frame of interval probabilities is similar to evidence theory proposed by Dempster and Shafer and they can be regarded as evidences on a finite set. The interval probability is suitable to represent ignorance on the given phenomenon so that it can be used as a kind of subjective probability. We show how to obtain the evidence by a pairwise comparison matrix on a finite set. The pariwise comparisons are usually inconsistent each other since they are given based on human judgements. The interval probabilities from them are determined so as to include such inconsistency. In case of two evidences whose prior and conditional probabilities are obtained as intervals, the marginal and posterior probabilities are also calculated as interval probabilities from the view of possibility. The illustrative numerical example is given in this paper.
区间概率的无知管理
区间概率作为一种非加性测度被提出。区间概率的框架类似于Dempster和Shafer提出的证据理论,它们可以看作是有限集合上的证据。区间概率适合表示对给定现象的无知,可以作为一种主观概率。我们展示了如何通过有限集合上的成对比较矩阵来获得证据。这些比较通常是不一致的,因为它们是基于人类的判断。从它们中确定区间概率,以便包含这种不一致性。当两个证据的先验概率和条件概率均为区间时,从可能性的角度出发,计算其边际概率和后验概率为区间概率。文中给出了一个说明性的数值例子。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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