Forecasting of Apricot Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method

Abstract

Turkey is the first largest apricot producer in the world. In 2016, Turkey was responsible for 9,21% of world apricot production with 730 thousand tons. Turkey also generated 11,31% of world apricot exports in 2016. The main aim of this research was to forecast apricot production of Turkey for the period of 2017-2022. The data of this study was obtained from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization and the time series covered the period of 1961-2016. Box-Jenkins Model was used to forecast apricot production. In the study, it was determined that the time series were not stationary and the series became stationary after the first difference was taken. Moving Average Model ARIMA (2, 1, 1) was determined as the most appropriate model for the stationary data type. The research results show that apricot production quantities of Turkey in 2017 was forecasted as minimum 383.206 tons, maximum 920.409 tons and, average 651.808 tons. However, Turkey’s the apricot production amount in 2022 was forecasted as minimum 271.734 tons, maximum 1.193.113 tones and average 732.423 tons. Considering the increase in demand, it is thought that apricot production will not be sufficient for the country. To protect the current leading position of the country, it is recommended that the government should give enough support to increase apricot production in Turkey.