Turning Globalization 4.0 into a Real and Sustainable Success for All Stakeholders

Ivo Pezzuto
{"title":"Turning Globalization 4.0 into a Real and Sustainable Success for All Stakeholders","authors":"Ivo Pezzuto","doi":"10.22495/JGR_V8_I1_P1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper aims to provide an overview of the major opportunities and challenges of the fourth phase of globalization in the current macro scenario characterized by a high level of economic and geopolitical complexity and uncertainty. The assumptions and results reported in this work are based mostly on the judgmental opinion of the author and on his critical analysis of macroeconomic data and global trends. The author of the paper is a seasoned chief economic advisor and professor of global economics and disruptive innovation. Forecasting global market trends and future scenarios in a highly unpredictable business environment is always a complex task which cannot be undertaken simply relying on quantitative research techniques based on historical datasets since the past is not always a good predictor of future events. The qualitative approach adopted for this research is based on multiple forms of data sources and the following activities: (1) identification of the key forces and trends in the environment (i.e. environmental scanning); (2) assessing the driving forces and trends by importance and uncertainty; (3) envisioning potential alternative scenarios; and (4) assessing the potential implications of each trend and scenario. The result of this analysis confirms the central role that technological development is likely to have in the near future as a major driver of disruptive change in the economic and social models of many countries and leads to the conclusion that the groundbreaking and disruptive innovations of the future should be perceived as a potential opportunity and not just as a threat by stakeholders in the international community.","PeriodicalId":288317,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","volume":"378 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Political Economy: Globalization eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22495/JGR_V8_I1_P1","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4

Abstract

The paper aims to provide an overview of the major opportunities and challenges of the fourth phase of globalization in the current macro scenario characterized by a high level of economic and geopolitical complexity and uncertainty. The assumptions and results reported in this work are based mostly on the judgmental opinion of the author and on his critical analysis of macroeconomic data and global trends. The author of the paper is a seasoned chief economic advisor and professor of global economics and disruptive innovation. Forecasting global market trends and future scenarios in a highly unpredictable business environment is always a complex task which cannot be undertaken simply relying on quantitative research techniques based on historical datasets since the past is not always a good predictor of future events. The qualitative approach adopted for this research is based on multiple forms of data sources and the following activities: (1) identification of the key forces and trends in the environment (i.e. environmental scanning); (2) assessing the driving forces and trends by importance and uncertainty; (3) envisioning potential alternative scenarios; and (4) assessing the potential implications of each trend and scenario. The result of this analysis confirms the central role that technological development is likely to have in the near future as a major driver of disruptive change in the economic and social models of many countries and leads to the conclusion that the groundbreaking and disruptive innovations of the future should be perceived as a potential opportunity and not just as a threat by stakeholders in the international community.
让全球化4.0成为所有利益相关者真正和可持续的成功
本文旨在概述当前以经济和地缘政治高度复杂性和不确定性为特征的宏观情景下,全球化第四阶段的主要机遇和挑战。在这项工作中报告的假设和结果主要基于作者的判断意见以及他对宏观经济数据和全球趋势的批判性分析。本文作者是资深首席经济顾问、全球经济和颠覆性创新教授。在高度不可预测的商业环境中预测全球市场趋势和未来情景始终是一项复杂的任务,不能简单地依靠基于历史数据集的定量研究技术来完成,因为过去并不总是对未来事件的良好预测。本研究采用的定性方法基于多种形式的数据源和以下活动:(1)确定环境中的关键力量和趋势(即环境扫描);(2)通过重要性和不确定性评估驱动力和趋势;(3)设想可能的替代方案;(4)评估每种趋势和情景的潜在影响。这一分析的结果证实了技术发展在不久的将来可能成为许多国家经济和社会模式颠覆性变革的主要驱动力的核心作用,并得出结论,未来的突破性和颠覆性创新应被视为潜在的机会,而不仅仅是国际社会利益相关者的威胁。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信