User Interaction with a Technology Evolution Model to Select Most Viable Enterprise Information Systems

Abstract

One of alternative ways to achieve a competitive advantage by an enterprise in the ICT area is to select the most prospective information system (IS) as a seed technology. The latter is defined as a first technology from a given area implemented in an enterprise, that determines or strongly influences the choice of further technologies from the same area. Seed ICT selection is particularly relevant for enterprises whose core business activity relies on online service provision. In this paper we present a user-requirement-based interaction scheme of an application that models the evolution of enterprise ISs, taking into account the production patterns of software releases, the functionalities offered, the users' community growth trends, and other factors. The evolution is modeled by hybrid discrete-time/discrete-event systems, and multi-models built with them. The technology choice is supported by multicriteria ranking algorithms that apply IS innovativeness forecasts. Moreover, this evolution model of enterprise IS can handle different uncertainties and cyber security issues. We present the use cases and scenarios, model management, and the knowledge base that stores time series, IS characteristics and forecasts. The use of this application is illustrated by a real-life example of three popular open-source CMSs. We conclude that an informed choice of the first IS and the corresponding enterprise architecture as a seed technology is particularly relevant for start-ups and SMEs. An extended variant of the above application may also provide decision support to developer teams seeking software evolution models to discover and apply the best-possible technology development and market strategies.