The renminbi’s status as a safe-haven currency

Abstract

The China Financial Stability Report (Financial Stability Analysis Group of the People’s Bank of China 2019) pointed out that the factors threatening global financial stability will likely persist into the future, especially as unilateralism and trade-protectionist sentiments have only intensified globally, while financial markets are highly sensitive to trade—all of which has led to growing uncertainty around the world. As such, global systemic risk prevention and control remain vital. Consequently, analysis of the demand for safe havens and the allocation of safehaven assets appears extremely urgent. Traditionally, the main safe-haven currencies are the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the US dollar. However, these currencies do not exhibit the characteristics of a safe-haven asset all the time. Meanwhile, the large and concentrated demand for such assets is likely to lead to excessively high currency portfolio holding costs.