An approximated multi-state model for reliability evaluation of renewable generation

Abstract

Reliability evaluation of power generation system is complicated with the integration of renewable sources, especially wind turbine and photovoltaics, whose generation characteristics are intermittent and time-varying. The concept of equivalent forced outage rate is conventionally utilized to simplify the computation burden. It is proposed to apply a multi-state model to express the variable generation of renewable sources. Number of de-rated states and corresponding de-rated capacities can be simplified by considering the plant factor. It is claimed that a number of certain capacity states may be neglected. Generation system reliability may be evaluated using two classical indices: loss of load probability and expected energy not supplied.