Risk Assessment of Sunflower Production Using In-Field Rainwater Harvesting on Semi-Arid Ecotope in South Africa

Abstract

Risk assessment of sunflower production was carried out using an empirical model. The crop yield prediction for semi-arid areas (CYP-SA) was used to simulate sunflower yield using 26 years (1984–2010) climatic data. Scenarios of crop yield simulation included production techniques associated with in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH), and conventional tillage (CT). IRWH is a no-till (NT) crop production practice that promotes runoff from a crusted runoff strip into basins where water infiltrates beyond evaporation. The study focused on the effect of initial soil water content at planting viz . empty profile (water content near the lower limit of plant available water (LL)); half profile (water content between LL and the drained upper limit (DUL)); full profile (water content near DUL) and planting dates (November, December and January). Yield difference at 80% probability was 74% higher under IRWH compared to CT with empty initial soil water content at planting. Results indicated that IRWH is more sustainable compared to the CT.