WORLD TOURISM DEVELOPMENT CYALICALITY

Abstract

Objective. The objective of the article is the investigation of the world tourism development cyclicality in the context of increasing globalization processes. Methods. To achieve the objective a complex of general scientific and special research meth­ods are used, namely: methods of theoretical generalization, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction (to research the starting points of the general theory of the economic cycle, on which process fluctuations in tourism are based), as well as special analysis methods: statistical and structural, mathematical modeling (to determine market fluctuations in world tourism, cyclical fluctuations in world tourism and in the regional context, assessment of world tourism cyclical development), historical and abstract-logical modeling (to build a life cycle model for t world tourism development). Results. It is determined that cyclicity is an objective regularity of the world tourism dynam­ics. Using the method of spectral analysis by the index of international tourist flows, it was de­termined that the transition to each subsequent stage in world tourism development occurs spon­taneously and regularly and is carried out under the influence of economic, political, social and other processes in the world. It is noted that the cyclical nature in the world tourism development is characterized by the duration, which depends on the specific economic situation and the effect of a complex of other factors: short, medium and long periods reflecting periodic recessions and upswing caused by shifts in reproductive structure and changes in economic policy, the general market situation and the specific conditions. The model of the evolutionary cycle of world tourism, which consists of four successive stages: exploration, growth, maturity, decline or renewal is con­sidered. It is determined the main criteria for the transition from one stage to another are: changes in the number and rate of tourist arrivals, various economic processes (vertical and horizontal integration, concentration, informatization, etc.), the state of the natural environment and tourist infrastructure, the attitude of the local population to the visitor.