Simulation of rice stock using system dynamics modeling

Abstract

Rice is strategically important in Indonesia, since it is a main contributor to inflation rate that determine the economy of the nation, and as it is an important staple food for the population, and it also contributes to stability in terms of politics and social for the country. A prototype of stock and price model using system dynamic was built. It is useful in predicting the economic and non-economic implication of both rice stock and price. In particular implication of paddy productivity, which is heavily dependent on climate, hence randomness, on stock and price of rice were discussed. The interactive approach in building the model benefited the owner of the model as they are closely involved in the process of creation and testing of the model, an approach belief to be useful in the implementation and possibly revising the model in a latter time as new information emerged.