The Prediction Of Export Product Prices With Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the largest swallow nest producers, supported by its natural condition as the original habitat of swiftlets. The selling price of unstable products and the lack of information about the prices of products exported to the general public are the problems faced. The absence of a benchmark or source of certain product prices that cause uncertainty in determining product prices. For this reason, the prediction system is created by applying the Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method, because this smoothing method can overcome time series data that has trend patterns. The prediction system provides a graph of the price movements of export products and price predictions for the following month. Based on testing that has been done, the results obtained mean that the Absolute Presentation Error (MAPE) is very good at 0.20%.