ISIS and the Collapse of the “Caliphal Syllogism”

Abstract

This paper examines the way in which ISIS established the caliphate, justifying doing so by way of a kind of syllogism. “Were the caliphate to exist,” ISIS argued, “it would possess certain characteristics (the major premise). We possess those characteristics (minor premise). Ergo, we are that caliphate and it would be a sin not to announce ourselves as such.” At the same time, ISIS averred that setting up the caliphate constituted a clear sign of the end times. But this very physical caliphate constituted both ISIS’s appeal and its greatest vulnerability. What would happen if coalition forces successfully crippled the “minor premise” and delayed ISIS’s expected end time? This paper explores what did happen and specifically how coalition battlefield victories compelled ISIS to alter its appeals and its very narrative structure. It closes with a brief comment on what may come next.