Modeling Rainfall with Respect to Land Cover and Population in the Niger Delta Area Nigeria for the Period 1990-2040

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities including oil exploration have led to environmental issues in the Niger Delta, Nigeria over the years, leading to the deterioration of aquatic and riparian ecosystems. This has affected health, fishing, subsistence farming, and the economy of residents of this region. The objectives of this study were to model rainfall with respect to the percentage land cover type and forecast the percentage land cover type in 2040 for the river Niger-Delta. The objectives were met by reviewing literature related to this study, data acquisition, and modeling. The data was accessed from Google Earth Engine and the World Bank climate websites. ArcGIS, Microsoft Excel and SPSS software were used to analyze the data. Land cover and rainfall data was modeled over ranges of time and data pairs from each variable for similar years were extracted and used to model the variation of rainfall versus land cover types. The land cover and rainfall data analyses are presented in the analysis section of this paper. The percentages of land cover in the study area under water and built-in were found to have increased while that under mangrove and vegetation were found to increase respectively between 1990 and 2040. Communities residing in the study region are highly vulnerable to the impacts of floods and water pollution by industries for half of each year. This study suggested several policies for the Niger-Delta well-being and protection of the region’s residents with respect to floods and related issues.