A Real Value Risk Estimation Model for an Emerging Market

Abstract

This research aims to solve the ambiguities that arise from stock risk estimation of an emerging market. Risk is not defined as variability but as a possibility of loss or of a weaker than market performance. Stock risk is estimated through the analysis of the underlying business, respectively its real value. The research is conducted on the Croatian stock market and results show that stock risk can be better estimated through real value analysis than by the beta coefficient or by the Fama and French three factor model. A unique real value risk factor is created and proved robust in theory and applicable in practice.