Issue Note 4. Walking the tightrope: Avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus

Abstract

Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies – with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes – offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs. JEL-Codes: C500, H100, H120, I180. run by the Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS); a database on government responses to the coronavirus compiled by the CoronaNet Research Project; and the CCCSL dataset of the Complexity Science Hub Vienna. These record press and government statements with regard to public policy interventions to reduce the spread of Covid19, obtained from media, government communications and press releases from the United Nations and other international organisations. For every variable, a search is carried out for one or several keywords and the results are evaluated and coded. A potential shortcoming of this approach is that government policies not discussed publicly, or not communicated actively, might not appear in these datasets and hence might not be included in the analysis.