Validation of applying the maximum likelihood duty cycle forecast for residential load aggregation

Abstract

The prediction of single house space heating load by the maximum likelihood duty cycle concept is extended to the next level of a group of houses supplied by a distribution feeder. Data collected in the Athens Load Control Experiment are used for validating the prediction. The random parameter is identified for each house in a group using the average day data in December 1986. The parameter is then applied for predicting the space heating load on a day in January 1987. The aim is to determine the effectiveness of the new stochastic appliance model for aggregating the space heating load of a group of houses.