Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?

Thomas R. Covert, M. Greenstone, Christopher R. Knittel
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引用次数: 225

Abstract

Scientists believe significant climate change is unavoidable without a drastic reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels. However, few countries have implemented comprehensive policies that price this externality or devote serious resources to developing low-carbon energy sources. In many respects, the world is betting that we will greatly reduce the use of fossil fuels because we will run out of inexpensive fossil fuels (there will be decreases in supply) and/or technological advances will lead to the discovery of less-expensive low-carbon technologies (there will be decreases in demand). The historical record indicates that the supply of fossil fuels has consistently increased over time and that their relative price advantage over low-carbon energy sources has not declined substantially over time. Without robust efforts to correct the market failures around greenhouse gases, relying on supply and/or demand forces to limit greenhouse gas emissions is relying heavily on hope.
我们会停止使用化石燃料吗?
科学家认为,如果不大幅减少化石燃料燃烧产生的温室气体排放,重大的气候变化是不可避免的。然而,很少有国家实施了为这种外部性定价的全面政策,或投入大量资源开发低碳能源。在许多方面,全世界都认为我们将大大减少化石燃料的使用,因为我们将耗尽廉价的化石燃料(供应将会减少)和/或技术进步将导致发现更便宜的低碳技术(需求将会减少)。历史记录表明,随着时间的推移,化石燃料的供应一直在增加,它们相对于低碳能源的价格优势并没有随着时间的推移而大幅下降。如果没有强有力的措施来纠正围绕温室气体的市场失灵,依靠供应和/或需求力量来限制温室气体排放在很大程度上是依赖于希望。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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