Argentina 2017: la dinámica intertemporal de la reestructuración económica

Abstract

The Cambiemos victory in the midterm elections was the most important political event in Argentina during 2017. The government achieved this result by managing the inter-temporal dynamics of economic adjustment. Before the elections, the government deferred unpopular measures and pursued an economic policy that, beyond empowering the winners (mainly the agricultural sector), compensated the losers (workers, seniors, and the informal sector) by increasing their income. The counterpart of this strategy was a significant increase in the external debt stocks and the deterioration of fiscal and external accounts. After the elections, the elderly, the informal sector, and the middle class suffered a greater imposition of costs. This report analyzes Argentina’s government policies before and after the elections, paying particular attention to its strategy of deferring the costs of adjustment and its negotiation with winners and losers. Going forward, the government faces the difficult task of solving accumulated economic imbalances without eroding the social support that allowed it to prevail in the legislative elections. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200125