Electricity Demand Forecasting of Household Sector in Papua Province 2050

Abstract

Household sector electricity demand plays an important role in electricity demand forecasts in the short, medium, and long-term. This is due to the increase in electricity demand from year to year in line with the increasing of the population, the electrification ratio (ER) and the people’s welfare. This study is intended to simulate household electricity demand and the average electricity needs per household in 2016-2050 in some areas of Papua Province. Biak-Numfor Regency, Jayapura Municipality, Jayawijaya Regency, and Merauke Regency selected in this study to represent each of these areas. The method used is an exponential regression between human development index (HDI) and average electricity consumption per household using system dynamics model based on historical data 2007-2015. A Powersim studio tool used to simulate the household sector electricity demand model. At the beginning of the simulation year obtained HDI were 71.47; 78.93; 55.03 and 68.41 respectively in Biak-Numfor Regency, Jayapura Municipality, Jayawijaya Regency, and Merauke Regency. At the end of the simulation, year obtained HDI were 83.65; 87.80; 75.88 and 83.56. Electricity demand of the household sector at the beginning of the simulation year was 55.128 GWh, 191.610 GWh, 34.038 GWh, 94.679 GWh. At the end of the simulation, the year was 126,473 GWh, 515,517 GWh, 128,468 GWh, 319,140 GWh. The average electricity needs per household at the beginning of the simulation year was 1,649; 2,810; 2,353; 2,039 in kWh/household. At the end of the simulation was 2,250; 5,466; 2,037; 4,047 in kWh/household.