Using Machine Learning Method to Qualify and Evaluate the Regional Economy

Jiongcheng Lu, Zhongxuan Zhang, N. Sai
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Abstract

As the economic lifeline of Southwest China, Sichuan Province has contributed to Chinese sustainable economic development, the most prominent Chengdu. Chengdu-Chongqing area has been pivotal in China's regional development plate. In the 14th Five-Year Plan of China, the implementation of the Chengdu-Chongqing double cities economic circle is emphasized from different aspects. This policy can directly stimulate the regional economy, thus driving the economic development of Sichuan. Accordingly, the study takes the GDP in 2018 of 21 cities of Sichuan province as the dependent variable. Except for the traditional financial method or model, the study adopts one of the Machine Learning methods, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), to compare the development level of 21 cities horizontally and vertically. Meanwhile, within the Machine Learning method, the new model's sampling accuracy is 0.803, and the first two principal components could interpret 91.206% of the total variance. Therefore, the study evaluates, analyzes the results of new ranks of 21 cities, exploring the possibility of coordinated economic development of Sichuan province under the background of the construction of twins "Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle." Hopefully, the consequence of research provides a theoretical reference for the policy implementation.
利用机器学习方法对区域经济进行定性和评价
四川省作为中国西南地区的经济命脉,对中国经济的可持续发展做出了贡献,其中最为突出的是成都。成渝地区在中国区域发展板块中处于举足轻重的地位。在中国的“十四五”规划中,从不同方面强调了成渝双城经济圈的实施。这一政策可以直接刺激区域经济,从而带动四川经济的发展。据此,本研究以四川省21个地市2018年GDP为因变量。除了传统的金融方法或模型外,本研究采用了机器学习方法之一的主成分分析(PCA),对21个城市的发展水平进行了横向和纵向比较。同时,在机器学习方法中,新模型的采样精度为0.803,前两个主成分可以解释总方差的91.206%。因此,本研究对21个城市的新排名结果进行了评价、分析,探讨了双胞胎“成渝经济圈”建设背景下四川省经济协调发展的可能性。希望研究结果能为政策的实施提供理论参考。
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