Long-Term Load Forecasting of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Source-Load Evolution Game

Abstract

Load forecasting plays an important role in the planning and operation of integrated energy systems (IES). The integrated energy system is a new form of energy utilization that organically combines multiple energy resources such as cold, heat and electric power. It has the advantages of high comprehensive efficiency, better economic benefits, and less pollution emissions. In this paper, a medium and long-term load forecasting method for integrated energy systems based on source-load evolutionary game is presented. With the help of Stackelberg game and alternate iteration strategy, this method can model the multi-energy coupling relationship and the evolution behavior of source-load, so as to realize the accurate prediction of various loads. Numerical studies have demonstrated that the proposed method can appropriately describe the internal mechanism of IES and obtain higher prediction accuracy.