Utilising time of use surveys to predict domestic hot water consumption and heat demand profiles of residential building stocks

Abstract

Aims: The prediction of water consumption patterns is a challenge, especially when water metering is not available at scale. The use of time-of-use survey (TUS) data offers an alternative to metering in order to track the general patterns of water consumption across large and representative groups of end-users. The paper focuses on the prediction of analytical domestic hot water (DHW) demand profiles for detailed building archetype models, using an occupant focused approach based on TUS data. The paper illustrates and discusses the resulting capability of dwelling archetypes to capture variations in heat demand and energy usage for water heating on a national scale and at high time resolution. Methodology: Five dwelling types are considered over different construction periods, representative of the majority of the Irish residential stock, which is used here as a case study. They are modelled at room level using EnergyPlus and converted into archetype models. A bottom-up approach is utilised to develop the required operational data at high space and time resolution. That methodology applies Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to TUS activity data to develop activity-specific profiles for occupancy and domestic equipment electricity use. It is extended to DHW demand profiles by combining the probability distributions for particular TUS activities with average daily DHW consumptions, depending on the household size, day type and season. Results: The archetype models capture variations in DHW consumption, heat demand and energy usage for DHW heating, on a national scale and a fifteen-minute basis. Moreover, they are found to be 90% accurate with the Irish standard dwelling energy assessment procedure in estimating the annual energy requirements for DHW heating. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the potential for utilising time of use surveys to predict domestic water demand profiles on a national scale and at high time resolution.