Carbon emission prediction study in Hebei Province based on system dynamics

Abstract

Based on the system dynamics theory, this paper constructs the causal relationship diagram of population subsystem, economic subsystem, energy subsystem and environmental subsystem in the carbon emission system of Hebei Province, establishes a dynamic model of carbon emission system in Hebei Province, and uses the model to predict and analyse the carbon dioxide emissions in Hebei Province from 2020 to 2030. By promoting or inhibiting carbon emissions in Hebei Province, different scenarios are set for the carbon emission system of Hebei Province, and the carbon emissions of Hebei Province are simulated and predicted based on different scenarios, combined with the above scenario prediction and analysis of the carbon system in Hebei Province and the economic and social status of Hebei Province, the optimal scenario is selected to provide reference for the future carbon emission reduction road of Hebei Province.