Forecasting GDP of India and its neighbouring countries using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The gross domestic product (GDP), a key indicator of an economy's index, is a market estimate of all final services and items produced within a country. This research aims to analyze, compare, and forecast the GDP of India's neighboring countries (Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and China). As a result, this paper employs an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, Auto-ARIMA and regression model. These models used to do train with data to better compare with different countries and forecast future values. Performance is analyzed through RMDSPE, AE, MAPE, NRMSE and RMSPE, and forecasted the countries' GDP as mentioned above from 2021 to 2026. Further, policy implications are also suggested.