Analysis of Emergency Evacuation in Chemical Enterprises Based on Bayes Network

Abstract

In chemical industry accidents, emergency evacuation is an important barrier to reduce casualties. In order to analyze the success probability of emergency evacuation of personnel in the fire accident scene of chemical enterprises, the fishbone diagram is used to qualitatively analyze the factors affecting the emergency evacuation of personnel. After that, the Bayesian network model is constructed, and the probability of successful emergency evacuation is quantitatively analyzed and calculated by using Netic. On this basis, the concept of dynamic Bayesian network is used to analyze the posterior probability of emergency evacuation. Finally, through the sensitivity analysis, the weak links affecting the emergency evacuation of personnel are obtained, which provides a basis for improving the emergency evacuation success rate of personnel.