Exponential Smoothing Forecast of African Americans' COVID-19 Fatalities

Abstract

This work focuses on the spread and impact of COVID-19 in the black community. A detailed analysis will improve the universality of a comprehensive mitigation strategy in reducing and combatting the spread of coronavirus. Our analysis of COVID-19 spans March 2020 to November 2020. Forecasting computation was based on exponential smoothing. The quality of our models was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Predominantly black states in the US were considered for the experiment. All things being equal, a forecast to February 2021 suggests a disturbing forecast for the African American communities in the states investigated.